Kova
Commerce
No ads fatigued
Every live ad with real spend, last 7 days (13 Oct to 19 Oct) against the 28 days before. Each ad is run through the same 8 checks. The cards show what tripped and what to do, every ad opens to a 21-day trend, and the rules behind the stages are at the bottom.
Ads checked
7
11 too new, 194 too small
Fatigued
0
cut today
Close / highly likely
0
0 refresh this week · 0 brief now
Spend on flagged ads
£0
0% of £26,246 this week
Account ROAS
1.77x
was 1.70x
Account CPM
£19.90
was £19.38
Flagged ads
Nothing flaggedNo ad reached Highly likely or above. 1 on Monitor. 11 newer ads need a week of history before they can be judged.
Every ad, every check
All 7 ads with real spend, biggest first. Click an ad to see its last 21 days. Includes 1 Meta has already pulled spend from.
| Ad | Verdict | Click rate | Hook rate | Hold rate | Cost to reach | Audience wear | Cost per sale | Return vs best | Purchases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ad 922 ▾ £1,604 · 1.48x |
Monitor · Meta already pulled back | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | No data |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
 Ad 934 ▾ £829 · 1.24x |
None · Nothing | Clear | No data | No data | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | No data |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
 Ad 940 ▾ £517 · 1.03x |
Monitor · Meta already pulled back | Clear | No data | No data | Clear | Clear | Clear | Strong | No data |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
 Ad 837 ▾ £488 · 2.67x |
None · Nothing | Clear | No data | No data | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
 Ad 964 ▾ £375 · 1.88x |
None · Nothing | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | No data | No data | No data |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
 Ad 915 ▾ £318 · 2.77x |
None · Nothing | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
 Ad 944 ▾ £302 · 3.04x |
None · Nothing | Clear | No data | No data | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear | Clear |
Last 21 days, day by day. Solid line = 7-day rolling value, which is what the checks compare. Dots = single days. Dashed grey = the whole account, on the two checks judged net of the account. Shaded = the 7 days being judged.
| |||||||||
Too new / too small
Labelled separately, never shown as None. Too new = under a week of baseline, judged from next week. Too small = under £300 and 3% of spend this week, so it cannot leak enough to matter.
| Ad | Label | 7-day spend |
|---|---|---|
| Ad 1000 | Too new | £7,322 |
| Ad 983 | Too new | £1,356 |
| Ad 1020 | Too new | £997 |
| Ad 995 | Too new | £875 |
| Ad 1008 | Too new | £729 |
| Ad 1006 | Too new | £601 |
| Ad 1025 | Too new | £526 |
| Ad 1011 | Too new | £522 |
| Ad 973 | Too new | £483 |
| Ad 1010 | Too new | £344 |
| Ad 970 | Too new | £336 |
194 ads too small to judge (£7,720 between them this week)
| Ad | Label | 7-day spend |
|---|---|---|
| Ad 420 | Too small | £283 |
| Ad 1035 | Too small | £280 |
| Ad 1022 | Too small | £253 |
| Ad 925 | Too small | £233 |
| Ad 961 | Too small | £227 |
| Ad 1007 | Too small | £220 |
| Ad 942 | Too small | £218 |
| Ad 951 | Too small | £208 |
| Ad 967 | Too small | £191 |
| Ad 968 | Too small | £187 |
| Ad 779 | Too small | £172 |
| Test - Ad 1033 | Video | Fir Starter Pack | Pine Disinfectant Real Christmas Tree | Starter Pack Demo | Too small | £172 |
| Ad 875 | Too small | £168 |
| Ad 588 | Too small | £165 |
| Ad 945 | Too small | £155 |
| Test - Ad 1028 | Image | Fir Grand | Winning Quote New Grand Image | Review Card | Too small | £145 |
| Test - Ad 1029 | Image | Fir | True To Life Review | Story Informal Photo | Too small | £144 |
| Ad 960 | Too small | £142 |
| Ad 966 | Too small | £142 |
| Test - Ad 1027 | Image | Fir Starter Pack | Short Review Smells Like A Fir Tree | Review Card | Too small | £141 |
| Test - Ad 1030 | Image | Fir | Not Fake Review | Story Lifestyle | Too small | £140 |
| Ad 997 | Too small | £139 |
| Ad 928 | Too small | £129 |
| Test - Ad 1032 | Video | Fir | Scent Led | Product Video | Too small | £127 |
| Ad 979 | Too small | £125 |
| Ad 1016 | Too small | £117 |
| Test - Ad 1031 | Video | Fir | Founder Story | Founder Story | Too small | £115 |
| Ad 974 | Too small | £106 |
| Ad 852 | Too small | £103 |
| Ad 962 | Too small | £101 |
| Ad 990 | Too small | £98 |
| Ad 926 | Too small | £98 |
| Ad 1024 | Too small | £84 |
| Ad 936 | Too small | £79 |
| Ad 821 | Too small | £79 |
| Ad 927 | Too small | £77 |
| Ad 982 | Too small | £77 |
| Ad 923 | Too small | £69 |
| Ad 1013 | Too small | £66 |
| Ad 916 | Too small | £66 |
| Ad 578 | Too small | £64 |
| Ad 885 | Too small | £63 |
| Ad 861 | Too small | £62 |
| Ad 1004 | Too small | £62 |
| Ad 988 | Too small | £62 |
| Ad 920 | Too small | £55 |
| Ad 1003 | Too small | £49 |
| Ad 584 | Too small | £49 |
| Ad 583 | Too small | £47 |
| Ad 977 | Too small | £47 |
| Ad 865 | Too small | £41 |
| Ad 1012 | Too small | £37 |
| Ad 950 | Too small | £37 |
| Ad 902 | Too small | £33 |
| Ad 981 | Too small | £33 |
| Ad 580 | Too small | £32 |
| Ad 1014 | Too small | £31 |
| Ad 975 | Too small | £31 |
| Ad 321 | Too small | £30 |
| Ad 907 | Too small | £30 |
| Ad 582 | Too small | £30 |
| Ad 1001 | Too small | £27 |
| Ad 994 | Too small | £27 |
| Ad 918 | Too small | £27 |
| Ad 972 | Too small | £27 |
| Ad 1005 | Too small | £24 |
| Ad 946 | Too small | £24 |
| Ad 572 | Too small | £23 |
| Ad 939 | Too small | £21 |
| Ad 941 | Too small | £20 |
| Ad 983 | Too small | £20 |
| Ad 943 | Too small | £20 |
| Ad 978 | Too small | £19 |
| Ad 573 | Too small | £19 |
| Ad 952 | Too small | £19 |
| Ad 948 | Too small | £19 |
| Ad 931 | Too small | £19 |
| Ad 1039 | Too small | £18 |
| Ad 577 | Too small | £18 |
| Ad 929 | Too small | £18 |
| Ad 947 | Too small | £18 |
| Ad 930 | Too small | £18 |
| Ad 984 | Too small | £17 |
| Ad 1019 | Too small | £17 |
| Ad 933 | Too small | £17 |
| Ad 996 | Too small | £16 |
| Ad 919 | Too small | £16 |
| Ad 452 | Too small | £16 |
| Ad 574 | Too small | £15 |
| Ad 991 | Too small | £15 |
| Ad 1021 | Too small | £15 |
| Ad 953 | Too small | £15 |
| Ad 959 | Too small | £15 |
| Test - Ad 869 | Video | Seasalt | Hook 2 Object Led | UGC | Too small | £14 |
| Ad 949 | Too small | £14 |
| Ad 913 | Too small | £14 |
| Test - Ad 869 | Video | Seasalt | Hook 4 No Compromise | UGC | Too small | £13 |
| Ad 963 | Too small | £13 |
| Ad 924 | Too small | £12 |
| Ad 938 | Too small | £10 |
| Ad 585 | Too small | £10 |
| Ad 579 | Too small | £9 |
| Ad 1015 | Too small | £9 |
| Ad 575 | Too small | £9 |
| Ad 976 | Too small | £9 |
| Ad 1017 | Too small | £9 |
| Ad 932 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 937 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 1026 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 910 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 586 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 1023 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 980 | Too small | £8 |
| Ad 687 | Too small | £7 |
| Ad 986 | Too small | £7 |
| Ad 458 | Too small | £7 |
| Ad 992 | Too small | £6 |
| Ad 900 | Too small | £6 |
| Ad 904 | Too small | £6 |
| Ad 989 | Too small | £5 |
| Ad 1002 | Too small | £5 |
| Ad 376 | Too small | £5 |
| Ad 1009 | Too small | £4 |
| Ad 882 | Too small | £4 |
| Ad 998 | Too small | £4 |
| Ad 935 | Too small | £4 |
| Ad 987 | Too small | £4 |
| Ad 985 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 917 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 581 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 993 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 965 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 587 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 957 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 958 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 1043 | Too small | £3 |
| Ad 1042 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 1038 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 999 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 1018 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 921 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 914 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 912 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 969 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 973 | Too small | £2 |
| Ad 576 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 375 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 1000 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 454 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 892 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 979 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 971 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 898 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 974 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 995 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 903 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 467 | Too small | £1 |
| Ad 896 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 1036 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 899 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 455 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 1041 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 468 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 268 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 448 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 470 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 893 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 466 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 459 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 911 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 322 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 906 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 461 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 463 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 905 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 462 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 908 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 374 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 453 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 377 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 457 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 894 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 451 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 1011 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 456 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 901 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 994 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 1037 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 895 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 897 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 909 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 269 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 449 | Too small | £0 |
| Ad 469 | Too small | £0 |
How a stage is decided
Every ad goes down the same path. The gates at the top decide whether an ad can be judged at all; the checks in the middle measure it; the ladder at the end names the stage, and each stage is defined by the one action it asks for.
1
Is it still taking real money?
7-day spend of £300+ or 3%+ of account spend.
NoToo small
YesCarry on
2
Is there a baseline to compare against?
At least 7 days and 5,000+ impressions in the 28 days before this week. Under 21 days of baseline the ad is scored with low confidence: it can reach Close, never Fatigued, because launch-period numbers reverse too often to cut on.
NoToo new
YesCarry on
3
Is Meta still spending on it?
Daily spend this week at 50%+ of its baseline daily spend. Below that Meta has already moved the money, so nothing is leaking.
NoMonitor · pulled back
YesCarry on
4
Run the eight checks and roll them up into three families
Each check scores Moderate or Strong against the bars in the table below. A family takes the strongest score of its checks, so two related signals never count twice. Attention and Audience are leading (no attribution lag); Return is lagging. Click rate and CPM are judged net of the account's own move; hook and hold against the ad's own baseline; frequency against a ceiling of 2.5 / 3 for prospecting and 5 / 8 for retargeting ad sets.
Attention
Click rate · Hook rate · Hold rate
Leading. Fewer people react to the creative.
Audience
Cost to reach · Audience wear
Leading. The same people are being reached, at a rising price.
Return
Cost per sale · Return vs best · Purchases
Lagging. The money has started to follow. 'Hard' = Strong, or Moderate on an ad with 10%+ of spend. Best-week on its own, with this week's ROAS and purchases not falling, never counts as hard.
5
Is it over-scaled rather than tired?
Daily spend at 150%+ of baseline, return down, and no leading family tripped. That is diminishing returns from scale: a different fix.
NoMonitor · over-scaled
YesCarry on
5b
Is it the site, not the ad?
Purchases collapsed (zero on an ad normally doing 5+ a week, or down 60%+ on one doing 10+) while click rate held. People are still clicking and not buying, which points at stock, the landing page or the pixel, never the creative.
NoMonitor · check site
YesCarry on
6
Is it below the breakeven line?
This week's ROAS against 2.46x from the margin sheet. Not the account average: that is dragged down by the big spenders themselves and lifted by retargeting and subscriber campaigns, so cold ads sit below it structurally. Below breakeven unlocks Fatigued; above it the worst outcome is Close.
7
Pick the stage: first match from the top wins
Fatigued · Cut today
Below breakeven and Return hard and at least one leading family tripped. Or: below breakeven, 10%+ of spend and under half its own best week, even if this week looks flat (slow decay). Withheld, stopping at Close, for ads under 21 days of baseline unless they are a 10%+ spender below breakeven, and for any client whose breakeven is not set from the margin sheet.
Close · Refresh this week
Return hard but still above breakeven. Or a Strong leading family with a Moderate return fall. Or purchases down 50%+ with spend held.
Highly likely · Brief the replacement
Return not yet hard, but both leading families tripped, or one of them Strong. The money has not moved; the warning signs have.
Monitor · Watch
One Moderate signal on its own, or Return moving with no leading family agreeing (likely attribution lag), or audience-not-creative: ad set frequency high while clicks and hooks hold, so the fix is a broader audience, not a new cut.
None · Nothing
Clean or improving.
8
Has it persisted?
Compared with the ledger entry from about a week ago, never with yesterday's run (three daily runs share six of seven days, which is one week read three times). A leading family still tripped a week on lifts Monitor to Highly likely; a Return family still tripped lifts Highly likely to Close. Persistence can confirm, never create, an alert.
9
Is it the whole account, not this ad?
If more than half of the material ads trip the same family on the same day, the run is labelled account-wide and Fatigued and Close are demoted to Monitor. Pott, 18 Jul 2026: ROAS fell on every ad with clicks, CPM and frequency flat, and the cause was site conversion rate, not creative.
The eight checks
What each one measures, where it trips, and why it earns a place.
| Check | Family | What is measured | Trip wire | Lag | Why it is in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Click rate Are fewer people clicking? |
Attention | Link clicks / impressions, last 7 days vs the 14 days before | Down 10% = moderate, 20% = strong. | No lag | The first thing to go when an audience has seen a creative enough. Moves days before revenue does. |
| 2. Hook rate Are fewer people stopping on the video? |
Attention | 3-second video views / impressions, videos only, vs the ad's own baseline | Down 10% = moderate, 20% = strong. | No lag | Same signal as click rate for video, read earlier in the scroll. Judged against the ad's own baseline, not the account's, because the account hook rate moves with the image/video mix. Counted in the same family so a video does not score twice. |
| 3. Hold rate Of those who stopped, are fewer staying? |
Attention | ThruPlays / 3-second views, videos only, vs the ad's own baseline | Down 10% = moderate, 20% = strong. | No lag | A video can still stop people and lose them two seconds later once they recognise it. Hold rate catches that before click rate does. |
| 4. Cost to reach Is it costing more to show this ad? |
Audience | Ad CPM move minus the account's CPM move over the same windows | Up 15% = moderate, 25% = strong, net of the account. | No lag | Meta charges more to keep showing a creative its audience is ignoring. Judged net of the account so a Q4 auction rise does not flag every ad. |
| 5. Audience wear Are the same people seeing it again and again? |
Audience | Ad set 7-day frequency, this week vs last week | Rising 10%+ and above 2.5 = moderate, above 3 = strong. | No lag | Ad set frequency, not ad frequency: in a broad set the audience wears out across the whole set. Reach falling with spend and CPM flat is the same thing, so reach is not a separate check. |
| 6. Cost per sale Is each sale costing more? |
Return | Spend / purchases this week vs the baseline. Read only if this week spent 3x the baseline cost per sale, and only if the shortfall is unlikely to be chance | Up 20% = moderate, 35% = strong, and the chance of this few sales at the baseline rate must be under 20% / 10%. Needs 8+ baseline purchases. Not counted if ROAS rose (bigger baskets). | Lags 1-3 days | The money signal, read as cost per sale rather than ROAS because ROAS also moves with basket size, which is a product-mix question. It arrives late (attribution lag), so on its own it never makes the top stage. The chance test stops one missing sale on a 5-a-week ad reading as decay. |
| 7. Return vs best Is it far below its own best week? |
Return | This week's ROAS as a share of the ad's best rolling 7 days (promo weeks excluded) | At 70% of best = moderate, 50% = strong. Best week needs 10+ purchases. | Lags 1-3 days | Catches slow decay. Pott Ad 707 fell 3.0x to 1.1x without any single week tripping a week-on-week bar. BFCM weeks are excluded or every ad reads 'off its best' in December. |
| 8. Purchases Have purchases collapsed? |
Return | Purchases per week vs the baseline weekly rate | Down 30% = moderate, 50% = strong. Not scored under 5 recent purchases. | Lags 1-3 days | Volume guard so a ROAS fall driven by one big order does not read as fatigue. The floor stops 4 vs 6 purchases reading as a 33% collapse. |
Why the rules are shaped this way
Only material ads, and only while spend is held
An ad Meta has already pulled money off cannot leak more, and a £40 ad cannot leak enough to matter. The watcher exists to stop spend leaking, so it only looks where the money is.
Families, not a signal count
Reach down with spend and CPM flat is frequency up by another name, and click rate and hook rate move together on video. Counting them separately would let one cause score three times.
Net of the account
CPM and ROAS are judged against the account's own move over the same windows. A Q4 auction rise or a site-wide conversion dip then cancels out instead of flagging every ad at once.
Return alone never makes the top stage
Purchases attribute back over 1-3 days, so the newest days always look worse than they are. A return fall needs a leading family to agree before anything is cut.
Breakeven, not the account average
Account average ROAS is the wrong line: the big spenders drag it down and retargeting lifts it. The bar is each client's breakeven from the margin sheet (2.46x here).
Own best week catches slow decay
Pott Ad 707 fell from 3.0x to 1.1x without any week tripping a week-on-week bar. Promo weeks (BFCM) are excluded from 'best', or every ad reads as off its best in December.
Age is shown, never a trigger
Pott Ad 153 ran eight months as the number two ad by purchases. Days running is on the card for context and as a sort tie-breaker; it never moves a stage.
A chance test on small numbers
Most ads do 2 to 10 sales a week, and one sale either way swings cost per sale by 30 to 50%. At the baseline rate this week's spend should have bought N sales; if seeing this few is more than 20% likely by chance, the fall is not counted. Below 5 purchases the return checks are also marked low confidence.
Cost per sale before ROAS
ROAS falls when baskets shrink and rises when they grow, and neither is the creative's doing. The return check reads cost per sale, and a cost-per-sale rise with ROAS up is logged as bigger baskets, not fatigue. ROAS keeps one job: the breakeven line.
A four-week baseline
The ad's normal is the 28 days before the judged week, so one odd fortnight does not become the baseline and weekday mix is balanced. Under 21 days of baseline the ad is low confidence and stops at Close, unless it is a big spender below breakeven, because that leak does not depend on the baseline.
Check the site before the creative
If purchases collapse while click rate holds, the ad is still doing its job and something after the click is broken: stock, the page or the pixel. That ad is routed to a site check, not a refresh, and the September 2026 backtest showed those ads recovered on their own.
Retargeting wears slower
A warm audience can see an ad five to eight times before it tires; a cold one two to three. Retargeting ad sets are spotted by name (never by the word 'warm', because Pott's prospecting campaigns are called Cold & Warm) and get the higher ceilings.
Persistence across non-overlapping data
Escalation compares with the ledger from about a week earlier, never with yesterday's run. Three consecutive daily runs share six of seven days.
Audience versus creative
Ad set frequency is used, not ad frequency. If the set is worn but every ad's clicks and hooks hold, the fix is a broader audience or a lower minimum; a new cut on its own will not help.
Generated 20/10/2026, 19:53:36 by scripts/meta-fatigue-watch. Read-only: nothing in the ad account was changed.